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| 1 |  |  |  |  |  |  | package Math::Random::Normal::Leva; | 
| 2 | 2 |  |  | 2 |  | 43069 | use strict; | 
|  | 2 |  |  |  |  | 3 |  | 
|  | 2 |  |  |  |  | 57 |  | 
| 3 | 2 |  |  | 2 |  | 8 | use warnings; | 
|  | 2 |  |  |  |  | 2 |  | 
|  | 2 |  |  |  |  | 87 |  | 
| 4 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 5 |  |  |  |  |  |  | our $VERSION = "0.03"; | 
| 6 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 7 | 2 |  |  | 2 |  | 8 | use Exporter qw(import export_to_level); | 
|  | 2 |  |  |  |  | 6 |  | 
|  | 2 |  |  |  |  | 89 |  | 
| 8 |  |  |  |  |  |  | our @EXPORT_OK = qw(gbm_sample random_normal); | 
| 9 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 10 | 2 |  |  | 2 |  | 1056 | use Math::Random::Secure qw(rand); | 
|  | 2 |  |  |  |  | 231872 |  | 
|  | 2 |  |  |  |  | 156 |  | 
| 11 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 12 | 2 |  |  | 2 |  | 15 | use Carp qw(confess); | 
|  | 2 |  |  |  |  | 3 |  | 
|  | 2 |  |  |  |  | 611 |  | 
| 13 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 14 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =head1 NAME | 
| 15 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 16 |  |  |  |  |  |  | Math::Random::Normal::Leva - generate normally distributed PRN using Leva method | 
| 17 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 18 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =head1 VERSION | 
| 19 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 20 |  |  |  |  |  |  | This document describes Math::Random::Normal::Leva version 0.02 | 
| 21 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 22 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =head1 SYNOPSIS | 
| 23 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 24 |  |  |  |  |  |  | use Math::Random::Normal::Leva; | 
| 25 |  |  |  |  |  |  | my @normal = map { random_normal() } 1..1000; | 
| 26 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 27 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =head1 DESCRIPTION | 
| 28 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 29 |  |  |  |  |  |  | Generates normally distributed pseudorandom numbers using algorithm described | 
| 30 |  |  |  |  |  |  | in the paper "A Fast Normal Random Number Generator", Joseph L. Leva, 1992 | 
| 31 |  |  |  |  |  |  | (L) | 
| 32 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 33 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =head1 FUNCTIONS | 
| 34 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 35 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =cut | 
| 36 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 37 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =head2 random_normal($rand) | 
| 38 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 39 |  |  |  |  |  |  | Returns a random number sampled from the normal distribution. | 
| 40 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 41 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =over 4 | 
| 42 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 43 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =item I<$rand> | 
| 44 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 45 |  |  |  |  |  |  | is the value of the stock initially | 
| 46 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 47 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =cut | 
| 48 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 49 |  |  |  |  |  |  | # This algorithm comes from the paper | 
| 50 |  |  |  |  |  |  | # "A Fast Normal Random Number Generator" (Leva, 1992) | 
| 51 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 52 |  |  |  |  |  |  | sub random_normal { | 
| 53 | 100000 |  | 50 | 100000 | 1 | 405325 | my $rand = shift || \&rand; | 
| 54 | 100000 |  |  |  |  | 91713 | my ( $s, $t ) = ( 0.449871, -0.386595 );    # Center point | 
| 55 | 100000 |  |  |  |  | 78507 | my ( $a, $b ) = ( 0.19600,  0.25472 ); | 
| 56 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 57 | 100000 |  |  |  |  | 71222 | my $nv; | 
| 58 | 100000 |  |  |  |  | 148798 | while ( not defined $nv ) { | 
| 59 | 137289 |  |  |  |  | 197450 | my ( $u, $v ) = ( $rand->(), 1.7156 * ( $rand->() - 0.5 ) ); | 
| 60 | 137289 |  |  |  |  | 20775602 | my $x = $u - $s; | 
| 61 | 137289 |  |  |  |  | 137594 | my $y = abs($v) - $t; | 
| 62 | 137289 |  |  |  |  | 189379 | my $Q = $x**2 + $y * ( $a * $y - $b * $x ); | 
| 63 | 137289 | 100 |  |  |  | 214919 | if ( $Q >= 0.27597 ) { | 
| 64 | 37895 | 100 | 100 |  |  | 111481 | next if ( $Q > 0.27846 || $v**2 > -4 * $u**2 * log($u) ); | 
| 65 |  |  |  |  |  |  | } | 
| 66 | 100000 |  |  |  |  | 186471 | $nv = $v / $u; | 
| 67 |  |  |  |  |  |  | } | 
| 68 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 69 | 100000 |  |  |  |  | 185375 | return $nv; | 
| 70 |  |  |  |  |  |  | } | 
| 71 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 72 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =head2 gbm_sample($price, $vol, $t, $r, $q, $rand) | 
| 73 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 74 |  |  |  |  |  |  | Generates a random sample price of a stock following Geometric Brownian Motion after t years. | 
| 75 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 76 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =over 4 | 
| 77 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 78 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =item I<$price> | 
| 79 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 80 |  |  |  |  |  |  | is the value of the stock initially | 
| 81 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 82 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =item I<$vol> | 
| 83 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 84 |  |  |  |  |  |  | is the annual volatility of the stock | 
| 85 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 86 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =item I<$t> | 
| 87 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 88 |  |  |  |  |  |  | is the time elapsed in years | 
| 89 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 90 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =item I<$r> | 
| 91 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 92 |  |  |  |  |  |  | is the annualized drift rate | 
| 93 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 94 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =item I<$q> | 
| 95 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 96 |  |  |  |  |  |  | is the annualized dividend rate | 
| 97 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 98 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =item I<$rand> | 
| 99 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 100 |  |  |  |  |  |  | custom rand generated if not passed will use Math::Random::Secure::rand | 
| 101 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 102 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =back | 
| 103 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 104 |  |  |  |  |  |  | note: all rates are taken as decimals (.06 for 6%) | 
| 105 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 106 |  |  |  |  |  |  | =cut | 
| 107 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 108 |  |  |  |  |  |  | sub gbm_sample { | 
| 109 | 0 |  |  | 0 | 1 |  | my ( $price, $vol, $time, $r, $q, $rand ) = @_; | 
| 110 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 111 |  |  |  |  |  |  | confess( | 
| 112 |  |  |  |  |  |  | 'All parameters are required to be set: generate_gbm($price, $annualized_vol, $time_in_years, $r_rate, $q_rate)' | 
| 113 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  |  | ) if grep { not defined $_ } ( $price, $vol, $time, $r, $q ); | 
|  | 0 |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 114 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 115 | 0 |  |  |  |  |  | return $price * | 
| 116 |  |  |  |  |  |  | exp( ( $r - $q - $vol * $vol / 2 ) * $time + $vol * sqrt($time) * random_normal($rand) ); | 
| 117 |  |  |  |  |  |  | } | 
| 118 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 119 |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1; | 
| 120 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 
| 121 |  |  |  |  |  |  | __END__ |